Rising popularity, electric bicycles enter a new track
With the improvement of industry standards and the retirement of small and medium-sized enterprises, the development of two wheeled electric vehicle brands is no longer simply relying on "price wars", but has shifted to focusing on enhancing brand value and product value, including establishing high-end intelligent lithium-ion electric bicycle brands and collaborating with technology companies to improve product intelligence levels. At the same time, as the demand for two wheeled electric vehicles in overseas markets continues to expand, relevant enterprises are also actively expanding their overseas sales channels.
Since the beginning of this year, domestic oil prices have undergone multiple rounds of adjustment and are still operating at high levels. The chain effect brought by high oil prices continues to affect relevant markets. Nowadays, whether it is four-wheel or two wheel, electric bicycles seem to have become a more favored choice for consumers, and the lukewarm electric bicycle market has also ushered in new opportunities for development under the trend.
New national standards promote industry upgrading
The improvement of industry standards and the rectification of defective products are the trend for the healthy development of the electric bicycle industry, including the continuous improvement and implementation of new national standards for low-speed electric bicycles, lithium battery standards, and charger standards. High standards and more standardized market regulation also largely mean that the industry will usher in greater development dividends. According to the requirements of the "Safety Technical Specification for Electric Bicycles" (hereinafter referred to as the new national standard) released in April 2019, electric bicycles purchased before April 15, 2019 that do not meet the new national standard will be subject to a transitional period of 3-5 years for management. Among them, many cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Zhejiang Province have clearly stipulated that electric bicycles that have not been registered during the transition period or have been registered as temporary licenses after the transition period will be prohibited from driving on the road.
In the eyes of industry insiders, this year, as the third year of the implementation of the new national standard, temporary license plates in many places may become invalid, which will give rise to a demand for replacement of electric bicycles. "This year, the transition period to new national standards in many cities has ended, and the purchase of electric bicycles will usher in another round of small peaks." According to a report by iResearch Consulting, with policy guidance on energy conservation and emission reduction, carbon peak, green travel, and the support of upstream and downstream development in the industry chain, the electric bicycle market still has great growth potential.
It is understood that the new national standard has made significant adjustments to the technical requirements of electric bicycles. Based on comprehensive consideration of various factors, it adheres to the non motor vehicle attributes of electric bicycles and comprehensively improves safety standards. For example, the maximum speed does not exceed 25km/h, the nominal voltage of the battery does not exceed 48V, and technical requirements such as tamper resistance, fire resistance, flame retardancy, and charger protection have been added.
After the introduction of the new national standard, the market is also accelerating the elimination of small and medium-sized enterprises with insufficient qualifications and weak operational capabilities, raising the entry threshold for the electric bicycle market. According to a research report by China Merchants Securities, the number of electric bicycle companies decreased from about 2000 to 110 from 2013 to 2019; From 2018 to 2020, the market share of CR4 increased from 47.4% to 57.9%.
As the transition period for new national standards approaches in various regions, the incremental market demand brought about by replacement demand is also continuously increasing. According to a research report by Tianfeng Securities, it is expected that from 2021 to 2023, driven by the new national standard, the increment of electric bicycles is expected to reach 15 million, 25 million, and 30 million respectively, with an annual compound growth rate of over 40%.
Leading the high-end intelligent main melody
According to relevant data, the current number of electric bicycles in China has exceeded 325 million. With the development of the industry, some new Internet car making forces have begun to enter the field of electric bicycles by taking advantage of their own capital advantages, technological advantages and Internet playing methods. Although the scale of the electric bicycle industry continues to grow, the overall growth rate has dropped from 10% in 2019 to 4.3% in 2021. Against the backdrop of accelerating the entry of new players, the growth space of the electric bicycle industry market has narrowed, and frequent price wars have led to mutual losses among enterprises. Developing intelligent products with high value and high technological content, achieving differentiated competition, forming better sales and operating profits is an important development direction for electric bicycle brand manufacturers.
According to a research report by Founder Securities, the high-end upgrade of electric bicycles is an inevitable trend. "There are two internal reasons. Firstly, high-end represents the stability of domestic fundamentals; secondly, factors such as better quality and more intelligent experience help to further open up overseas high-end markets."
At the same time, with the maturity of basic technologies such as 4G, the Internet of Things, and mobile Internet, intelligent control system or solution providers have developed low-cost solutions with good integration and compatibility that are suitable for electric bicycles. At present, electric bicycles on the market have also achieved intelligent transformation in areas such as mobile phone sensing, automatic locking, and fault detection. For example, some intelligent electric bicycles can reduce the complex operations of inserting and removing keys, folding and placing side supports, etc. during the user's boarding and alighting process through electronic car locks. They can also avoid the user starting without getting on the vehicle through ride sensors, monitor abnormal vehicle conditions through attitude sensors and issue reminders, and assist the battery BMS system in better management and protection of charging and discharging through temperature and current sensors. In addition, the focus of a certain brand's intelligence has shifted from a single "vehicle" to the construction of a collaborative intelligent system architecture and a travel service ecosystem of "person vehicle road cloud". Through functions such as seamless unlocking, remote control, OTA (Space Download Technology) upgrade, and cloud intelligence, it effectively enhances the riding experience of consumers.
"Overall, the intelligence level of electric bicycles has significantly improved in 2021, with significant improvements in vehicle status collection and hardware management, vehicle interaction transmission systems, driving assistance systems, energy systems, anti-theft systems, and other aspects." A report released by iResearch Consulting shows that consumers' attention to "intelligence" has significantly increased, and intelligence has become another important factor to consider when buying a car, following battery life and power performance.
Going global has become a new growth point for performance
Green environmental protection is the future development trend. Various countries have introduced subsidy policies and carbon credits to lower the threshold for purchasing short distance transportation. France provides a maximum subsidy of 500 euros to citizens who purchase ebikes; The German government provides a maximum subsidy of 1000 euros for new energy trucks and 500 euros for electric bicycles; The Swedish government provides a subsidy of 25% on the price of each sold electric bike, up to a maximum of 1000 euros.
With the continuous increase in market demand in Europe and America in recent years, the sales of electric bicycles overseas are also rapidly increasing. According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, from 2019 to 2021, the import and export scale of electric bicycles in China continued to grow, with export trade being the main focus. In 2021, China's export of electric bicycles reached 22.9 million units, a year-on-year increase of 27.7%; The export value was 5.29 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 50.8%. Combined with recent fluctuations in international gasoline prices and other factors, experts predict that this growth trend will continue.
Under the stimulation of favorable market conditions, both traditional brands and emerging electric bicycle companies are actively expanding into overseas markets. "The core difference of electric bicycles is the three electric (battery, motor, and electronic control) system, which can account for 30-40% of the cost, so the industry threshold is not high. If the product is easy to replicate, consumers will consider more comprehensive factors such as price and appearance in decision-making." An investor said, "Going global in the supply chain is the first step to do a good job with the product. If we only replicate the product to overseas markets, it is easy to encounter the situation of" South Orange and North Orange ". Brand building requires establishing standardized portraits that can meet different consumer groups in different regions, and improving in channels, production, teams, products, and other aspects."
The new trend of battery swapping is approaching, and the industry is expected to usher in a new trend
Currently, electricity safety has become an important factor in accelerating the transformation of the electric bicycle industry. Driven by the market demand for continuous charging and energy replenishment, the model of on-site replacement of fully charged batteries through a charging and swapping integrated cabinet is gradually transforming decentralized and autonomous charging behavior into a new business model, building a huge blue ocean market.
The industry is increasingly optimistic about the prospects of new technologies such as "separation of vehicles and electricity" and "replacement charging". Experts say that the battery swapping mode is an effective way to solve the safety hazards of dispersed charging of electric bicycles. The introduction of new national standards will further accelerate the standardization process of electric bicycle power sources, promote the development of the battery swapping industry, and promote the separation of vehicle and electricity as the new normal.
In recent years, many regions have begun to promote intelligent battery swapping cabinets. Taking a certain brand's battery swapping as an example, relevant enterprises in Dongguan, Guangdong have implemented pilot projects for battery swapping services. They adopt a combination of intelligent battery swapping cabinets and fast charging piles, relying on a sharing model to provide targeted solutions for different types of charging needs of community users, achieving universality of new and old electric vehicles, charging and swapping as needed.
In another pilot city for battery swapping, Hangzhou, if cyclists find that their electric vehicles are running low during their daily travels, they only need to open the app on their mobile phones to search for the nearest battery swapping station and navigate to it with just one click. The intelligent battery swapping station can automatically recognize the identity of users and vehicles. Users only need to put the battery into the corresponding hole, and the intelligent recognition system will immediately pop up a fully charged battery for users to use.
Currently, electric bicycle power batteries have gradually been upgraded from lead-acid batteries to lithium batteries. According to the iResearch report, the sales of lithium-ion electric bicycles accounted for 23.4% in 2021, compared to only 5.4% in 2016. With the joint efforts of production, power, and policy to accelerate the replacement of lithium batteries, the penetration rate of lithium electric vehicles in the consumer market will continue to grow in the future. The increase in lithium electric vehicles and the increasing demand for power replenishment efficiency from users are both contributing to the growth of the battery swapping market. Research firm EVTank predicts that with the increase in penetration rate of battery swapping services and the growth of user groups, the market size of electric bicycle battery swapping is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan in 2025.
At present, mainstream platforms have carried out battery swapping reforms on their own delivery personnel's electric bicycles and electric vehicles. Accelerate the layout of battery swapping infrastructure, either in the form of sub businesses or in cooperation with third-party battery swapping enterprises.
Wang Xianxian, Vice President of the Science Research Institute of the Ministry of Transport, believes that the safety issue of electric bicycle charging is a small incision and a big concern for people's livelihood. Charging and swapping facilities should be included in basic public services, and through national policy guidance, we should accelerate the high-quality development of the charging and swapping industry, effectively solve practical problems such as urban layout, site use, electricity price tilt, and cost sharing.
The emerging business model of electric bicycle battery swapping is in line with industry trends, social governance needs, and national policy requirements, and will also provide new impetus for industrial transformation, upgrading, and innovative development. With the increasing attention paid to the safety of electric bicycles in various regions, more standardized charging of electric bicycles will be promoted, and the electric bicycle market is expected to usher in a new era of battery swapping.
